We're officially in dupe era.
CPG and Retail news from the week of 7/28/25
Hello hello!
Happy National Chocolate Chip Cookie Day! To celebrate, Tate’s Bake Shop pulled out all the stops, launching its first-ever Times Square billboard, which features a QR code offering passersby a free bag of Tate’s (which anyone can redeem at home, too). Pretty damn iconic for this NY-born, 45-year-old brand.
Now, let’s get into the news of the week →
News From the Week
Quince—a company that openly sells $50 cashmere sweaters identical to $400 designer versions—just raised $200 million at a $4.5 billion valuation. The funding round, led by Iconiq Capital (which manages wealth for Mark Zuckerberg and Jack Dorsey), more than doubled Quince's valuation in just six months.
This isn't just a successful startup story—it's validation that consumers no longer see “quality” tied up in brand names. Let’s get into it →
This isn’t your typical “knockoff” story. Quince didn't win by being the cheapest possible alternative—think SHEIN mocking designer styles with obviously inferior materials. Instead, Quince won by positioning itself as "the same, but cheaper." They use the same mills as luxury brands, source (allegedly) identical materials, and deliver quality—just without the brand capital.
Being a perfect dupe is the brand.
Quince isn’t alone. An entire ecosystem of unabashed, dupe-first brands has emerged:
Dossier built a $60M+ business selling designer fragrance dupes and just opened their first NYC retail store.
e.l.f. Beauty grew to a $10 billion market cap by openly duping prestige cosmetics at drugstore prices.
Element Brooklyn offers refillable home and personal care products that dupe Aesop and Le Labo at a fraction of the price.
These brands didn't hide what they were—they celebrated it. The dupe became the positioning. We're witnessing a fundamental reframe of value:
Nearly one-third of US adults have intentionally purchased a dupe, jumping to almost half among Gen Z.
The hashtag #dupe has 8.9 billion TikTok views, where finding the perfect alternative has become content gold.
We've completely inverted the shame. Consumers see hunting down a $29 Dossier fragrance that smells identical to a $150 Tom Ford cologne not as settling, but as winning.
For today’s younger shoppers, paying full price without exploring options isn't being loyal—it's being lazy.
This is basically private-label…with better marketing. While TikTokers hunt for designer knockoffs, retailers have been building empire-sized businesses doing the exact same thing—they just called it something else.
Target’s Good & Gather saw this coming. Target’s private brands generate $30+ billion annually—and its premium Good & Gather brand alone has become a $4 billion portfolio, with 40% of all Target grocery runs now including at least one Good & Gather item. The strategy wasn't just "cheaper"—it was "better quality at a better price.”
Costco's Kirkland Signature is the ultimate success story, with $56-86 billion in annual sales representing 30% of Costco's total business. If Kirkland were a standalone brand, it would be larger than Nike, Coca-Cola, or United Airlines. Its success stems from rigorous quality standards—every new item requires CEO approval—and strategic partnerships with premium manufacturers including Starbucks, Duracell, and Kimberly-Clark.
Walmart's even joined the party with Bettergoods. This new private brand is a Gen Z favorite, with 67% more likely to purchase Bettergoods than the retailer’s OG private-label brand Great Value, and 78% planning to repurchase.
The difference? Bettergoods focuses on culinary experiences and premium ingredients, not just low prices. Sound familiar?
What's driving the dupe fixation? With inflation hitting everything, shoppers started questioning why they were paying extra for packaging and branding when the actual product was identical. Now, 84% trust store brand quality as much as national brands, and 73% of brand switchers plan to stay switched even when the economy improves.
The market reality proves it's working:
In 77 of 250 supermarket categories, private labels now outsell the strongest national brand.
While private label unit sales grew 2.3% since 2021, national brands declined 6.8%.
Gen Z is leading this charge, with their private label spending projected to surpass Boomers by mid-2026.
Finding the highest-quality, closest-match dupe has become a form of cultural capital. It's not about being cheap—it's about being smart.
The $4.5 billion bet on Quince proves that the future belongs to whoever can deliver identical quality at smart prices while making customers feel intelligent about their choices.
The brands that survive this shift won't be the ones with the biggest marketing budgets—they'll be the ones offering genuine value without the premium markup.
In this new world, value wins above all. 🏆
CPG & Consumer Goods
A sweet & sour frozen collab. SmartSweets and GoodPop have teamed up to create Sourmelon Frozen Pop Bites, a snack featuring bite-sized watermelon pops with a sour candy coating.
Candy-coated frozen fruit started as a viral TikTok trend to DIY at-home—this mix of shock factor (sour) x better-for-you alternative (real fruit > candy) proved to be social algorithm gold. Since then, brands like Fruit Riot! have emerged, coating real fruit with sour candy and packaging them up for the frozen aisle. Now, GoodPop and Smart Sweets are hopping on the train.
New-age baby formula. Nara Organics just launched as a new premium organic infant formula without additives like corn syrup and palm oil. The startup already secured a cool $32 million in funding.
So what sets this apart from other organic formulas? According to Nara Organics, it combines “EU manufacturing standards with USDA certification” (a trend that I think we’ll be seeing a lot more of as American food regulation faces criticism - J).
Its formula contains the “highest percentage of milk fat available in the U.S. market,” and the company manufactures in Germany, which may also help avoid Cronobacter contamination issues that have led to several recalls of U.S.-made formulas in recent years.
Next-gen Jam. BamJam is a new fruit spreads with a nostalgic twist, offering 8g of protein from collagen and zero added sugar in fun flavors like Strawberry, Grape, and Raspberry. Launching this fall, it bridges childhood joy with grown-up nutrition.
I joined as an advisor to BamJam a few months ago and couldn’t be more excited to see this live and out in the world! - N
Ruh-roh. High Noon recalls vodka seltzer packs after cans were mistakenly labeled as Celsius energy drinks, risking unintended alcohol consumption.
For those confused how this could possibly happen: the two companies share a third-party packaging supplier, who accidentally shipped empty Celsius cans to High Noon. Someone just lost a major customer… 🫣
Brew Battle. Danone is suing Chobani (again) for allegedly mimicking its cold brew coffee packaging (a black and yellow label) and slogan (a light roast described as “bright & mellow”).
This isn't the first time Danone and Chobani have had beef—Danone previously sued Chobani in 2016 over advertising claims that suggested Danone's Light and Fit contained chlorine, and again in 2019 regarding Chobani's claims about sugar content in its kids' drinkable yogurt.
“Functional” = out. “Longevity” = in. NOVOS, a longevity supplement brand (welcome to 2025 🙄), launched the NOVOS Bar—a protein-rich bar containing five ‘longevity’ ingredients and 20 superfoods—claiming to be the “healthiest nutrition bar ever created,” and “healthier than a healthy meal.”
This brand is the first (that I’ve seen) that specifically calls out having less of two amino acids: “versus whey, its protein combination is 50 percent lower in methionine and 43 percent lower in isoleucine, two amino acids that have been found in multiple animal studies to shorten lifespan.” My prediction? We’ll be seeing a lot more brands calling out their amino acid profiles—focusing on the quality of protein, not just the quantity. If you’re a brand that uses collagen as your sole protein source…watch out. - J
A new era of scents:
Rare Beauty is launching its first eau de parfum (not to be confused with its existing fragrance mist), plus four Fragrance Layering Balms designed to be worn alone or layered with the perfume.
Melanie Bender, former CEO of Rhode Beauty, is also launching a fragrance brand called LORE.
It’s nothing new for beauty brands to be getting into scents—but what is interesting is the stratification of scents (it’s giving dupe culture… - J):
Business of Fashion
Proactiv better look out 👀 Byoma launched its Blemish range, featuring six, accessibly-priced products aimed at addressing acne with a barrier-focused approach and backed by $2 million in clinical testing.
The OG OV is back. Ty Haney is making a triumphant return to activewear brand Outdoor Voices (which she founded in 2013) after a five-year hiatus marked by financial struggles and public criticism. Following a private equity acquisition, the brand aims to revive its core mission with a new look and logo.
The brand will be (re)launching on Haney’s own loyalty platform, Try Your Best, featuring nods to Haney’s energy drink brand Joggy—a full-circle moment for the 33-year-old multi-biz founder.
eCommerce
Curated social commerce. ShopMy, a platform where users can shop directly from creator content, is launching is launching a consumer shopping platform. The platform features "Circles" where shoppers curate their own shop through multi-creator recs, bringing together 175k+ creators and 1k+ brands in a community-driven marketplace. Following its acquisition of Thingtesting, the platform will soon incorporate verified customer reviews.
Back in January 2025, ShopMy raised $77.5 million in Series B funding—following over $352 million in brand sales.
Speaking of social commerce… LTK, a ShopMy competitor, just unveiled a new suite of social features transforming it into a creator-led social network. New features include public profiles, messaging, and AI-powered search. LTK currently has 40 million monthly users and projected $6 billion in 2025 retail sales.
Retail
Interior design meets tech. Beginning this fall, Best Buy will team up with IKEA to pilot in-store kitchen and laundry planning services in select Best Buy locations. This will be the first time IKEA product will be available in another retailer, giving Best Buy shoppers a clear vision of home tech in a realistic environment.
Wayfair’s retail adventure continues! Wayfair is set to open another physical store in Denver by late 2026.
Its brick-and-mortar strategy has proven highly successful: Wayfair's Wilmette, IL store drew over 720,000 visitors in its first year, with more than 50% of buyers new to Wayfair. It saw a 15% higher growth rate than the national average after the store opened, and categories like impulse buys (+50%) and big-ticket renovations (+35%) surged. This success has fueled Wayfair's continued expansion into Atlanta, Yonkers, and now Denver.
Homecoming. Bed Bath & Beyond is returning (!!!) with a new format called Bed Bath & Beyond Home in Nashville. The most exciting news? It’ll honor old coupons that customers bring in—true to the OG BB&B brand.
Funding news
Owning the means of production. Starco Brands is acquiring its contract manufacturer, The Starco Group, to create a vertically integrated company called "STARCO" with two subsidiaries.
Non-Alc takes center stage. The Pathfinder, a non-alcoholic spirit specializing in amaro, secured $3.6 million in funding from Stoli Group to fuel its nationwide distribution expansion.
Weekly Pickups
Last week we chatted with Doak Sergent, the VP of Brand Partnerships at IPSY. He tries thousands of beauty products for his job, and was thrilled to share his current fave →
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I love this idea of value being the brand & liked the breakdown of the major grocery PL players!
It makes me wonder if we’d ever see each retailer’s PL being sold across each others channels (eg does better goods develop a specialization is x being so good that Target wants to pick it up). Underlying the strength of PL are those manufacturing partnerships mentioned; I wonder if we’ll start to see non-competes and / or more competition in that area, too.
Conversely, I wonder what items will always be protected from PL pressures (eg high risk, high trust - maybe, items like infant formula!)